Saturday, September 5, 2009

9-5

Well it's here, finally. The season starts...


Only 2 plays today.

GEORGIA +5.5 -110
Bet 1.1u to win 1u

GEORGIA WIN +170
Bet 1u to win 1.7u

LOST my teaser because the beautiful end zone pass ended up on the ground with 3 minutes left.

0-1 -1.1u

Thursday, September 3, 2009

THURSDAY'S PICKS

I took a 6pt teaser on

NC State +1
Boise St +2.5

bet 1.1u to win 1u

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

BIG EAST AND ND

I know I shouldn't but I group Notre Dame in with the Big East.

RUTGERS +400
With the whole O-Line returning and a Senior QB, the Scarlet Knights are going to be a force to reckon with in the Big East. 10-2

GAMBLE ADVICE
4-1 isn't really worth the risk.

WEST VIRGINIA +220
It's tough to pick against the Mountaineers, whom have been the class of the Big East for the last half decade, but Pat White is gone, and I don't think Jarrett Brown can fill his shoes. 9-3

GAMBLE ADVICE
1 right type of hit to Noel Devine and West Virginia struggles for a pre-Xmas bowl game.

PITT +250
With 8 returning on O and 7 on D, this team seems like it will be a player in the conference. The hole left by McCoy will be something to watch, since the returning RBs had 9 rushes last season. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
I have zero faith in any Dave Wannstedt coached team.

SOUTH FLORIDA +250
I love Grothe and the D having experienced, but 4 new O-Lineman scares me. The Defense is all upperclassmen and Leavitt knows how to play D. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
No thanks. Whenever the O-line is a question mark you have to sit it out.

CINCINNATI +800
8 return on last years championship Offense. Only 1 on D. This team will be able to score, which is good, because they won't be able to stop anyone. 5-7

GAMBLE ADVICE
8-1 on a team with no starting Defensive players, I'll pass.

UCONN +800
Losing perhaps the best player in college football last season, Donald Brown, is not something teams like UCONN can overcome at once. The last 2 seasons have been great, but this year with only 12 returning its going to be a long season. 5-7

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. If Brown were still around then absolutely, he's not so no.

LOUISVILLE +1500
For a team that was right there in 06, they have yet to recover from it. 13 return including top 3 tacklers, but lacks that certain something to make me a believer. 4-8

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. 15-1 on a team with a new qb and half on both sides of the ball, just not feeling it.

SYRACUSE +5000
The Big East doormat, starting former Duke player Greg Paulus at QB. Sure whatever, 14 return but unless Paulus turns into McNabb its going to be a long season for the Orange. 4-8

GAMBLE ADVICE
50-1 I'll pass.

BETS
NONE

PREDICTIONS
BIG EAST CHAMP- Rutgers


NOTRE DAME
This is the year for the Irish and Weis, 9 return on offense including all the skill players. This team is set up to make a run for the BCS Title. Toughest road game @Pitt Nov 14th. USC comes to South Bend, with a redshirt Freshman at QB. 11-1 is my guess for the Irish. Probably upset by Pitt.

There ya go, the BCS conferences are ranked and filed. Come October I will redo this hopefully improving what I've seen.

PAC 10

USC AND 9 OTHER WEST COAST TEAMS

STANFORD +3000
Here is your sleeper team. Solid coach, experience on both sides of the ball, the Cardinal's year is THIS year. God I feel dirty. 9-3

GAMBLE ADVICE
30-1 on Stanford? Sure. If we are going to go through the looking glass lets go full force.

USC -250
With the redshirt freshman I'm calling an end to the Trojan stranglehold on the PAC 10. Only 3 returning Defensive starters should cause a few more hiccups for the team too. 9-3

GAMBLE ADVICE
Absolutely not. 1) -250 is betting 5 bucks to win 2. 2) Redshirt Freshman QB.

CALIFORNIA +400
This is the 'sexy' pick to give USC a run for their money. I don't see it. Sure 7 on O and 8 on D return but I don't see the Bears being able to capitalize on it this season. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
4-1 on a team with USC in its conference? No thanks.

UCLA +1000
This would be my pick to take the reins from USC this season. If not for the Redshirt Freshman QB. 16 return to a team that is going to give the conference trouble all year long. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. USC and redshirt freshman QB.

ARIZONA STATE +2000 The Sun Devils will improve after the dismal season last year. It really comes down to whether or not the D can stop anybody. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
I wouldn't. They have some pieces in place but the D has to give up less then 300 yards a game.

OREGON STATE +1200
The Rodgers show will be in its 2nd season and this offense is going to be absolutely great to watch. Sadly the D which was on the weak side last year, only has 3 returners. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
No thanks with the weak D.

ARIZONA +3000
Rebuilding year for the Offense, very experienced D. The Karasz411 pick to upset USC. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
30-1 sounds good but I don't trust them with the ? that is the Offense.

WASHINGTON +5000
Anything will be an improvement over last years 0'fer season. This team needs Mr. Locker to take over and the Defense to make some damn tackles. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
They should not be +5000 with having Locker come back. So the value is there. But has anybody ever gone 0-12 then turned around to win the conference they play in?

WASHINGTON STATE +5000
This is going to be another example of a team on paper being mediocre and not producing on the field. The offense needs to double its output and the D needs to half what it gave up last year to have any shot of being relevant. 5-7

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. Too much needs to change in this one season to be a threat.

OREGON +500
New coach only 9 returning starters. Welcome to the bottom Oregon. 3-9

GAMBLE ADVICE
No.

BETS
STANFORD +3000 to win PAC10 0.5u to win 15u

PREDICTIONS
ARIZONA beats @USC.

ACC

I won't lie, I thoroughly enjoy the ACC because year in year out about 7 teams have legit shots to win the ACC title throughout the season.

This is the ACC just about anything can happen, the conference beats itself up every season and it's really anyone's guess who's taking the spot in the Orange Bowl.

COASTAL

GEORGIA TECH +500
The entire offense returns on this crazy option run first team. The only question mark is the DLine which has 3 new starters. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
My pick to win the ACC. So yes I'll take them at 5-1.

VIRGINIA TECH +225
It's Virginia Tech the only ACC powerhouse. They've won double digit games since 04, this year the non-conf is rough with Nebraska and 'Bama in the first 3 weeks. I see them faltering, but I may be the only one. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
2.25 on every dollar you bet, in this kind of conference I say no.

NORTH CAROLINA +600
In a league where the D makes a difference at the top, having a new O-Line will not helps. Yates is going to be on his back more then you momma at the prom. OH SNAP. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. Yates isn't going to have the time to make the plays he needs. But the D will keep games interesting.

MIAMI +600If this were the old Miami they would be replacing the 5 nonreturning starters with NFL caliber players. If this were the old Miami they would be expecting a conference title. This is not the old Miami. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
If you believe Miami can make something happen I won't stop you. But I sure as hell won't bet on them.

VIRGINIA +5000
The O-Line returns but the D minus the secondary just about doesn't. A long season for a team 2 years removed from an amazing 9 win season., 3-9

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. The Cavaliers are going to get beat up in the middle, just like the NBA Cavs even with Shaq.

DUKE +5000
The offense will be fun to watch but the ACC is a defensive minded league. This is your typical Knife to a gun fight example. 3-9

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. The Blue Devils just can't hang on the football field.

ATLANTIC

NORTH CAROLINA STATE +1000
Returning probably the best QB in the conference and the experienced D gives me a reason to think the Wolfpack have a slight edge over the rest of the division. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
Yes. My 'sleeper' pick to take the conference. Crazy I know but in the division of 500 teams the team with the QB owns the tiebreaker.

WAKE FOREST +1800
The way Wake Forest has won recently has been a credit to Jim Grobe's Defensive mindset. Now can they keep it up after losing their stars on D? Riley Skinner will do his best but I think coming up just short against Russell Wilson. October 3rd, decides the Atlantic. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
Absolutely, 18-1 on a team with a new D and a defensive minded coach. The risk is worth it.

FLORIDA STATE +400
With half the Defense gone, including top 3 tacklers it's going to be another mediocre year for the Seminoles in recent history. The Offense will be fun to watch with 8 returning but until this running game can improve, perhaps this season, FSU won't be doing and playing on December 12th. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
4-1 not worth the risk on the rebuilt D.

BOSTON COLLEGE +1500
'New' head coach, and new QB will leave this team in the middle of the average Atlantic Division. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
15-1 is a pretty good reward especailly when nobody really seems to stand out in the division.

CLEMSON +700
The team that couldn't live up to expectations last season is coming in a bit more under the radar, with a new QB and a coach with half of last season under his belt. Thankfully with Spiller in the backfield this team will have a pulse, but thats about it. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
It's the ACC, I have no faith in Clemson, perhaps this season that perception will change. But I will NOT spend a dime on Clemson in a futures bet.

MARYLAND +5000
Someone is going to bring up the rear of this division. A team with 9 returning starters is the clear favorite for this spot.

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. The Turtles are going to get blown away by everyone.

BETS
GEORGIA TECH +500 to win ACC 1u to win 5u
NC STATE +1000 to win ACC 0.5u to win 5u
WAKE FOREST +1800 to win ACC 0.5u to win 9u

PREDICTIONS
ACC TITLE GAME- GEORGIA TECH vs NC STATE
ACC CHAMP- GEORGIA TECH

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

BIG 12

SOUTH
TEXAS +140
The 'team to beat' in the Big 12. I don't think anybody will this season. 12-0

GAMBLE ADVICE
+140 on a team that can possibly lose to Oklahoma on Oct 17th and be out of a shot for the Division then and there? Absolutely not. If you can guarantee me Texas beats Oklahoma, I still wouldn't take them at +140.

OKLAHOMA +150
The only question marks on this team is the O-Line and Safeties. The other 9 on defense return so the safeties won't be as exposed. The WR spot is a little week but people believe in Bradford and having 2 1000 yard RBs in the backfield will keep the WRs single covered. Like always it comes down to the Red River Shootout, I think they lose it again. This time they won't have the excuse MLB Reynolds was hurt.11-1

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. I don't like the +150, when the season comes down to the Texas game, and Nebraska isn't going to just roll over.

OKLAHOMA STATE +700
Sadly, Texas Tech showed us last year that even if you beat Texas/Oklahoma but get destroyed by the other you don't matter. The Halloween game vs Texas is the one to watch but I doubt see it happening. Their first game against Georgia will really show what kind of season it will be for the Cowboys. 9-3

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. Texas is too strong and I don't see how OK St can stop the Oklahoma running game. Just settle for the Cotton Bowl and be happy.

TEXAS A&M +5000
The whole offense is back this season in hopes of being this year's Texas Tech. In the Big 12 if you can score you can win, they will give OK St a run for their money Oct 10th, but will come up short against them, and lose the games they are suppose to. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. The D won't stop Bradford or McCoy, that ends any hopes for the division.

BAYLOR +5000
They have sleeper potential with 16 returning starters, but again I don't see them being able to challenge the top dogs in the division. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
I don't recommend it at all. But what do I know?

TEXAS TECH +5000
The QB always throws a ton of yards but no way Texas Tech can compare with what they did last season, it's going to be a big let down this season. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. They couldn't compete last season, one Texas defender pushes Crabtree and perhaps the best final play in college football history never happens, and the Red Raiders head to the Insight Bowl.

NORTH
COLORADO +3000
9 returning on Offense. @Texas October 10th is the only conference road test. Division comes down to Colorado-Nebraska on Nov 27th. 9-3

GAMBLE ADVICE
A small bet on a 30-1 shot that can skate through their relatively weak schedule to play in the Big 12 title game, not a terrible decision.

NEBRASKA +500
This is the consensus pick to lose to the Red River Shootout winner. I disagree. I'll take the returning offense in the Big 12 thanks. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
Say someone guarantees you Nebraska wins the North, you feeling frisky getting 5-1 on Nebraska vs OK/Texas? I don't.

KANSAS +800
Here is where gambling gets fun and maddening at the same time. This team is very experienced and 2 years removed from an undefeated regular season and last season they weren't doormats either. I don't see them doing it but they got some sleeper potential. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
I say no. I don't think they have what it takes to take on Nebraska, Colorado and they get stuck with both Texas and Oklahoma this season.

KANSAS STATE +5000
This team will start out very hot and get everyone talking about them, then completely blow it all with the backloaded schedule. It'll be hilarious watching the ESPN guys picking them to beat Colorado. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. New QB, RB, coach this season will not go well.

MISSOURI +3000
This team lost way to much and is not known for restocking the shelves when players leave. The last 3 seasons have been fantastic for the Tigers, keep that in mind when they are losing to Baylor. 5-7

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. New QB, WR, over half the D. None of this looks good for Mizzou.

IOWA STATE +5000
The offense will be fun to watch. That is all I got for a team that continuously disappoints. 3-9

GAMBLE ADVICE
I wouldn't bet on this team with Jesus' money.

BETS
COLORADO +3000 to win Big 12 0.5u to win 15u

PREDICTIONS
BIG 12 TITLE GAME- TEXAS vs COLORADO
BIG 12 CHAMP- TEXAS

Sunday, August 30, 2009

BIG 10

OHIO STATE +150
Another Big 10 team with a weak schedule, outside of the USC game and @Penn St. The defense brings back 7, 5 for the O, including over-hyped sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor. This team always comes to play until the BCS anyway. 12-0

GAMBLE ADVICE
They are my pick to win the Big 10 but the gamble isn't worth the 4 months of waiting.

PENN STATE +200
The schedule is a joke, they should be favored in every game, only true test is Ohio State whom just so happens to go to Happy Valley. With only 9 starters returning and question marks in the secondary and O-Line its tough to think they won't blow a road game like last season. My guess is @Illinois. 10-2

GAMBLE ADVICE
With the weak schedule, being in the BCS Title hunt isn't completely out of the question. I don't see 2-1 being worth it based on the question marks at key spots.

IOWA +700
The reverse Illinois, 8 back on D, half the O returns, although the offense is pretty experienced, they could be a sleeper team if not for having to go TO both Penn St and Ohio St. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
The offense is experienced, the non-returning starters are all Seniors and the D brings back most of its better players. This definitely sounds like sleeper team material and I will throw my money down the drain with the Hawkeyes. YES.

MINNESOTA +2500
This is the type of team that is a sleeper. 17 return. The only downside is the tough conference games are on the road @OSU, @PSU back to back end with @Iowa. They HAVE to go 2-1 in those games to even have a shot. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
Yeah. Experienced on both sides of the ball. Do I think they can do it? On paper yes. I have no reason NOT to like them, at an the huge price of 25-1 its totally worth a small bet.

NORTHWESTERN +2500
Losing all the 'skill' spots is never a good thing, thankfully the O-Line returns mostly in tact. The Back 7 on D returns This team will be able to compete if the Offense can find its rhythm. 8-4

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. The Offense is going to be a question mark the first 3 weeks of the season, which should be wins, BUT they could lose one of them if they struggle, something dumb like 9-7 or crazy, especially if Syracuse shows up to play.

ILLINOIS +600
This will be the fun to watch team of the Big 10. With 8 returning on the O side. The points will come. And they are going to need them with only 5 on the defensive side. They won't go down without a fight and the Non-Conf isn't a cakewalk like most teams in this conference. 7-5

GAMBLE ADVICE
It's tough to pick this team to win the conference with only 2 of the front 7 returning. Should have a pretty good secondary, though.

MICHIGAN +1200
Just about everybody on the O returns which will give teh inexpereinced QB plenty of help. The D has some holes but realistically nobody is expecting this team to much of anything, a bowl game is the goal. 6-6

GAMBLE ADVICE
I wouldn't take this team at +5000. It's going to be another long season for Michigan. Next year though, look out.

MICHIGAN STATE +600
Losing your star player and 3rd best all time QB will definitely lead to a down year, no matter how many return. The D will keep them in some games but the O will lack the ability to break it open. 5-7
GAMBLE ADVICE
NO. I don't see this team being able compete week in and week out with what they have.

WISCONSIN +900
Another Big10 team with half of last years starters returning. Only 2 of the top 6 tacklers return and no PJ Hill. It's going to be a missed bowl season for the Badgers. 5-7

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. 3 new O Lineman, new QB and RB spells an Offense that will struggle early, and often. A new front line on the D means the run stopping will struggle.

PURDUE +5000
Inexperienced veteran team. The Offense is comprised of mostly seniors that haven't started much. The D its top tackler and really thats it. New coach rough season. 4-8

GAMBLE ADVICE
NO. There is no easy way to say this, Purdue will NOT be good this year.

INDIANA +5000
It's going to be a good start to the season, maybe even upset Michigan in the big house, but thats it. I see at least an 8 game losing streak, starting October 3rd until the season is over. 4-8

GAMBLE ADVICE
No. I don't see them winning a conference game, this season.


BETS
MINNESOTA +2500 to win Big10 0.5u to win 12.5u

PREDICTIONS
Ohio State wins Big 10
Illinois upsets Penn State Oct 3rd.